XRP Price Prediction: Will $1.40 Resistance Break or Bounce Lower?

#XRP

• Technical Resistance: XRP faces stiff resistance at the 20-day moving average of $1.40, with a neutral MACD signal suggesting a wait-and-watch approach for bulls.
• Supply Crunch: A sharp decline in XRP on exchanges and a surge in whale buying indicates a strong holder conviction, providing a bullish undercurrent for the asset.
• Support Levels Hold: The price remains above the lower Bollinger Band at $1.32, suggesting that despite weak momentum, the market is not yet in a full sell-off.

XRP Price Prediction

BTCC financial analyst John notes that XRP is currently trading at $1.3809, sitting just below its 20-day moving average of $1.4029. This level acts as a immediate resistance. The MACD indicator remains negative at -0.0037, signaling a lack of bullish momentum. However, the Bollinger Bands show the price is holding above the lower band of $1.3236, suggesting the selling pressure is not overwhelming. John states, 'The tightening Bollinger Bands indicate a period of low volatility, which often precedes a significant move. For bulls to regain control, XRP needs to break and hold above the $1.40 midpoint. A failure to do so could see a retest of the $1.32 support zone.'

According to recent on-chain data, XRP liquidity is tightening as the supply on exchanges drops sharply. This is coupled with a surge in whale activity, where large holders are accumulating significant amounts. BTCC analyst John interprets this as a bullish signal. 'When exchange supply drops, it typically means holders are moving coins to cold storage, reducing the immediate selling pressure. Combined with whale accumulation, this sets a foundation for a potential price breakout. The market sentiment here is cautiously optimistic, aligning with the technical setup which shows the price is not breaking down but rather consolidating near support.'

Factors Influencing XRP’s Price

XRP Liquidity Tightens as Exchange Supply Drops and Whale Activity Surges

XRP's market dynamics are shifting as exchange reserves dwindle and large investors reposition holdings. Binance's scarcity index for XRP hit 0.75—its highest level since July 2024—indicating thinning liquidity. The immediate supply of XRP available for sale on the exchange is declining, though prices remain range-bound near $1.39.

Whale movements have accelerated, with 1.1 billion XRP changing hands in recent weeks. Such activity typically precedes volatility, yet the token has shown unusual stability despite shrinking exchange inventories. Analysts speculate this could signal accumulation by long-term holders rather than short-term trading activity.

The divergence between supply contraction and price action raises questions about potential pent-up momentum. Historical patterns suggest such liquidity crunches often resolve with sharp price movements, though direction remains uncertain given regulatory overhangs.

How High Will XRP Price Go?

Based on the current technical structure and the bullish supply dynamics, the path for XRP is building a base. The immediate target is the $1.40 resistance level. If broken with volume, the next price target is the upper Bollinger Band around $1.48. However, the critical question is whether momentum can sustain such a move.

BTCC analyst John concludes that while the fundamentals from the supply squeeze are supportive, the price action needs to confirm the trend. 'The upside potential is there, but traders should wait for a confirmed break above $1.40 before entering aggressively. Until then, the risk of a dip to $1.32 remains real.'